The chaos of the buildup - stolen training gear, acclimatisation headaches, a string of low-stakes warm-up fixtures - is finally behind Thomas Tuchel's England. When they take the field in Dallas on Wednesday against Croatia, the tournament begins in earnest. It is a fixture loaded with history, with the two sides' most recent World Cup meeting, the 2018 semifinal in Moscow, ending in Croatian victory after extra time - a result that has lingered in English football consciousness ever since.
Croatia arrive at this tournament as one of international football's most unlikely success stories. A nation of fewer than four million people, they have reached a World Cup final and a third-place playoff in consecutive tournaments under coach Zlatko Dalic, a run that has transformed them from dark horses into a side of genuine pedigree. Yet the mood among the Vatreni faithful heading into this campaign is notably divided - and for good reason. Those wishing to bet on biathlon matches online will find different stakes entirely, but in Dallas, what is at stake is whether a generation of Croatian footballers can summon one final act of defiance before the curtain falls.
To understand the Croatian side and what England can expect, ESPN spoke to Richard Wilson, host of the History of Yugoslav Football Podcast and a scout with experience across South East Europe, including clubs in Scotland, Portugal and Slovenia. His assessment is clear: this is as much a send-off as it is a football tournament for Croatia.
A Generation Taking Its Final Bow
"This tournament is about sending a generation off - that's the key symbolism," Wilson told ESPN. Luka Modric, Ivan Perisic, Andrej Kramaric and Mateo Kovacic are all in the frame for international retirement after this campaign, and Dalic himself is considered an 80-20 probability to step down once the tournament concludes. The coach who took charge of a squad in crisis in 2017 and steered it to the greatest period in Croatian football history is unlikely to begin rebuilding with an entirely new cast of characters.
Modric's situation is the most closely watched. Six weeks ago, his retirement from international football felt like a certainty. His move to AC Milan has complicated that calculation - Wilson places the probability of his retiring at roughly 75-25 in favour - but the broader picture remains the same. This group of players, who collectively redefined what Croatian football could achieve, are winding down together in North America.
Wilson is emphatic, however, that Modric's quality should not be dismissed. "Playing at the sharp end of Serie A is better than playing for Inter Miami or in Saudi Arabia," he said, drawing a deliberate contrast with Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, who are also departing the international stage around this tournament. What Modric has lost, in Wilson's view, is not sharpness but endurance - the capacity to play 90 minutes twice a week at elite level. With six days between group games, that limitation is considerably less damaging than it would be in club football.
Croatia's Tactical Dilemma and England's Opportunity
The central tactical question surrounding Croatia is how Dalic manages a defence short on pace. In March friendlies, including against Belgium, Croatia experimented with a back three to provide additional cover. Wilson expects that system to be deployed against England, but acknowledges it carries its own complications. Josip Stanisic is a capable full-back who struggles with the attacking demands of a wing-back role; Perisic can cover ground all day at 37 years old, but his age is a factor. Playing a flat back four, meanwhile, leaves the midfield exposed and the defence vulnerable to runners in behind.
That vulnerability is precisely where England should focus. Wilson identifies the flanks as the decisive battleground, pointing specifically to Marcus Rashford and Anthony Gordon as players capable of cutting inside Stanisic onto their stronger foot, exploiting the space between Croatia's defensive line and their midfield. Bukayo Saka, operating on the opposite flank, adds a further threat. "When Croatia played Brazil in March, they were ripped apart by Vinícius Júnior," Wilson noted - a cautionary example of what pace and directness can do against this defensive structure. England possess those qualities in abundance.
Croatia's Own Weapons: Vuskovic, Musa, and the Extra-Time Threat
Croatia's attacking options are limited, and Wilson is candid about it: this is not a side that scores freely. Much of the creative burden falls on Modric and Kovacic in midfield, with Petar Sucic of Inter Milan available as an able deputy if either tires. Up front, Petar Musa - who plays his club football for FC Dallas, meaning Wednesday's game is effectively a home match for him - has made a compelling case to start as the central striker ahead of Ante Budimir. Musa is a target man by nature but considerably more mobile than his competitors for the role, capable of holding the ball and releasing the attacking midfielders running off him.
In defence, young centre-back Luka Vuskovic, coming off an impressive loan season at Hamburg from Tottenham Hotspur, is expected to start. Wilson frames this as a "prove it" moment for the 20-year-old - his first major test at senior international level comes against one of the tournament favourites. How he handles England's forward line will tell us a great deal about whether Croatia's defensive transition is already underway.
One number haunts every England fan who remembers Moscow seven years ago: 120. "If you're drawing with Croatia after 90 minutes, history will show you that you will probably lose to them after 120," Wilson said. The Vatreni's record in knockout football, particularly in extra time, is not a coincidence - it is a reflection of the competitive mentality this group has built over a decade. England would be wise not to let it get that far.
Prediction: Functional, Not Beautiful
Wilson's forecast for the match is refreshingly unsentimental. He expects a cagey, attritional affair - a 1-0 England win or a goalless draw are his most likely outcomes. His reference point is the Euro 2020 opener between the same sides at Wembley: intense early, then flat once England took the lead, with both teams conserving energy for what lay ahead. Panama and Ghana await both nations in this group, and the points available in those fixtures may well feel more reliably attainable than those on offer Wednesday. Neither side has a strong incentive to overextend against the other.
For England, however, the symbolism of the opener matters beyond the scoreline. Tuchel's side have not begun a major tournament with convincing authority in recent memory, and the noise around the squad's pre-tournament preparations has been louder than ideal. A professional, controlled victory in Dallas - even an unglamorous one - would settle nerves and set a tone. Croatia, for their part, will be playing for something larger than three points: a dignified farewell for a group of players who gave the country some of its greatest footballing nights. Whether that emotion translates into performance, or weighs too heavily on ageing legs, is the question Dallas will answer.
